Cody Taylor

An anonymous reader writes “Nassim Nicholas Taleb, a famous ‘Quant,’ has long been a strong critic of the use of mathematics and statistics in the financial markets. He has been very vocal in his books The Black Swan and Fooled by Randomness. In his article on edge.org, he says ‘My outrage is aimed at the scientist-charlatan putting society at risk using statistical methods. This is similar to iatrogenics, the study of the doctor putting the patient at risk.’ After the recent financial crisis, wired.com ran an article titled ‘Recipe for Disaster: The Formula That Killed Wall Street’ in which the quant David Li and his Gaussian Copula were crucified — we discussed it at the time. Now, I’ve recently been admitted to a graduate program of good repute in Computational & Applied Mathematics. There is a wide range of subjects in which you can pursue your PhD, one of them being Financial Mathematics. I had a passing interest in it for quite some time. In the current scenario, how advisable it is to pursue a PhD in this topic? What would my options be five years down the line? Will the so-called ‘quants’ still be wanted by the banks and other financial institutions, or will they turn to more ‘non-math’ approaches? Would I be better off specializing in less volatile areas of Applied Mathematics? In short, what is the future of Financial Mathematics in light of the current financial crisis?”

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MaulerOfEmotards sends along an in-depth followup, from the Swedish press, of our discussion the other day about the biased trial judge in the Pirate Bay case. “The turmoil concerns Tomas Norström, the presiding judge of The Pirate Bay trial, who is suspected of bias after reports surfaced of affiliation with copyright protection organizations. For this he has been reported to the appeals court (in Swedish; translation here). The circus around the judge is currently focused on three points. First, his personal affiliation with at least four copyright protection organizations, a state the potential bias of which he himself fails to see and refuses to admit. Secondly, Swedish trials use a system of several lay assessors to supervise the presiding judge. One of these, a member of an artists’ interest organization, was forced by Mr. Norström to resign from the trial for potential bias. The judge’s failure to see the obvious contradiction in this (translation) casts doubts on his suitability and competence. Thirdly, according to professor of judicial sociology Håkan Hydén (translation), the judge has inappropriately ‘duped and influenced the lay assessors’ during the trial: ‘a judge that has decided that “this is something we can’t allow” has little problem finding legal arguments that are difficult for assisting lay assessors to counter.'” Click the link below to read further on Professor Hydén’s enumeration of “at least three strange things in a strange trial.” On a related note, reader Siker adds the factoid that membership in the Pirate Party exploded 150% in the week following the verdict. The Pirate Party now surpasses in size four smaller parties in Sweden, and is closing in on a fifth. Political fallout could ensue as soon as June, when an election for EU parliament will be held.

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ericatcw writes “There was a flurry of excitement earlier this week when the first Google Android netbook, the Skytone Alpha 680, was spotted by Slashdotters. Now, Computerworld has scored an exclusive interview with Skytone’s co-founder. Among many tidbits, he reveals that the Alpha 680 builds upon the success of last year’s 0 Alpha 400, which shipped 100,000 units, mostly in Europe under names such as Elonex OneT; that the new Alpha 680 will weigh 1.5 pounds, 25% less than the first Eee 701 netbook; that its ARM11 chip (basically the same as the one used in the iPhone) can handle YouTube video; and that he hopes to have Chinese manufacturing partners producing the 0 Alpha 680 within 3 months.”

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Google can conduct street-level mapping in Britain as long as faces and addresses are blurred, British regulators ruled Thursday.

Philip K Dickhead sends in a piece from the Australian media, a couple of weeks old, that hasn’t seen much discussion here. In a class-action lawsuit in Australia against Merck for its Vioxx anti-arthritis drug, information has come out that the company developed a “hit list” of doctors who had expressed anything but enthusiasm for the drug. Vioxx was withdrawn from the market in 2004 because it causes heart attacks and strokes. Merck settled a class action in the US for .85 billion but did not admit guilt. “An international drug company made a hit list of doctors who had to be ‘neutralized’ or discredited because they criticized the anti-arthritis drug the pharmaceutical giant produced. Ttaff at US company Merck & Co. emailed each other about the list of doctors — mainly researchers and academics — who had been negative about the drug Vioxx or Merck and a recommended course of action. The email, which came out in the Federal Court in Melbourne yesterday as part of a class action against the drug company, included the words ‘neutralize,’ ‘neutralized,’ or ‘discredit’ against some of the doctors’ names. It is also alleged the company used intimidation tactics against critical researchers, including dropping hints it would stop funding to institutions and claims it interfered with academic appointments. ‘We may need to seek them out and destroy them where they live,’ a Merck employee wrote, according to an email excerpt read to the court by Julian Burnside QC, acting for the plaintiff.”

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Combat Wombat writes with this excerpt from Reuters: “A strain of flu never seen before has killed up to 60 people in Mexico and also appeared in the United States, where eight people were infected but recovered, health officials said on Friday. Mexico’s government said at least 20 people have died of the flu and it may also be responsible for 40 other deaths. [The government] shut down schools and canceled major public events in Mexico City to try to prevent more deaths in the sprawling, overcrowded capital. … Close analysis showed the disease is a mixture of swine, human and avian viruses, according to the CDC. Humans can occasionally catch swine flu from pigs but rarely have they been known to pass it on to other people. Mexico reported 1,004 suspected cases of the new virus, including four possible cases in Mexicali on the border with California.

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Hugh Pickens writes “Saul Hansell of the NY Times has an interesting post analyzing AT&T’s earnings report and highlighting the enormous stakes involved in the renewal of its exclusive contract to distribute Apple’s iPhone in the United States. Hansell does some rough calculations: ‘If the average iPhone customer brings in a month, or ,080 a year in revenue, and the operating profit margin stays constant at 26 percent, that means an iPhone customer represents at least 1 in operating profit over a two-year contract,’ says Hansell. ‘Put another way, if the company gets 2.5 million new customers a year because of its iPhone exclusivity, the deal represents at least 0 million a year in operating profits — profits that it could lose if Verizon sold the iPhone, too.’ With those sort of numbers, AT&T has every reason to make Apple an offer it can’t refuse to keep its exclusive deal for another few years. Of course, the incentives for Verizon are presumably the mirror image, so expect Verizon to come to Cupertino, checkbook in hand, to see what sort of deal they can make. ‘The benefit of somewhat more iPhone sales from wide distribution is likely to be swamped by a huge bid from AT&T to keep exclusivity, and an equally high bid from Verizon to win some (or maybe even all) of the business for itself.'”

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